A small, opinionated set of charts where each metric earns its place by being a credible signal for the major tops and bottoms of the ~4-year market cycle.
One read on where the market sits in its roughly four-year cycle, scored 0 to 1. It combines the app's other risk gauges into a single number. Turn on any leg in the legend to see how the signals move on their own, and how they line up near past tops and bottoms.
Bitcoin cycle risk: log price against a 0–1 composite of six on-chain metrics. Toggle any line in the legend to see how the chart adapts.
Bitcoin cycle risk read from mining power: log price against a 0–1 risk score of market cap divided by network hash rate, standardized against its own 2-year baseline. Price running far ahead of the machines securing the network reads hot; hash rate still building through a drawdown reads cold.
Bitcoin cycle risk from price structure alone: log price against a 0–1 composite of three moving-average signals, the Mayer Multiple, the Pi Cycle Top ratio, and the 200-week MA multiple. Toggle any line in the legend to see how the chart adapts.
Bitcoin cycle-top risk read from price alone: how much of the last 60 days price has spent pinned within 20% of its all-time high. Sustained time at the highs is the euphoric distribution zone that marks a top, and because every top sets a fresh high, this reads hot at each cycle's peak whether the cycle ran tall or muted. It stays cold everywhere else, including bear-market relief rallies.
Global retail-attention risk: log BTC price against a 0–1 composite of crypto attention across Reddit subscriber growth, Google Trends search interest, Wikipedia pageviews, Coinbase's App Store rank, and the follower growth of a curated set of X analysts. Attention spikes near cycle tops and goes flat near bottoms.
Bitcoin demand risk read from the US spot ETFs: log price against a 0–1 risk score of aggregate daily net flows, smoothed over 30 days and standardized against their own 2-year baseline. Record inflows mark demand euphoria near tops; sustained outflows mark exhaustion. History starts with the ETFs in January 2024.
